6d ā¢ š¬ Discussion
š§ Why Timing Bitcoin Can Get You Locked Out
Last night my wife hit me with the question everyone asks eventually.
Shouldnāt we DCA out near the top and DCA back in near the bottom.
On paper it sounds genius. Sell a little in euphoria. Buy a little in blood. Repeat. More Bitcoin. Easy.
Hereās the problem. That plan only works in a world where you always have access to your money. We do not live in that world.
š„ The real risk is not timing. Itās access.
If the system snaps even for a week, you donāt get to calmly execute your ābuy the bottomā plan.
Banks can pause transfers.
Exchanges can restrict rails.
And stablecoins are not the vault people pretend they are.
USDT and USDC can be frozen or blacklisted at the issuer level.
š¬ The nightmare scenario
You āsmartlyā trimmed Bitcoin because you thought youād buy back cheaper.
Then the bottom arrives.
Panic everywhere.
And your dry powder is unusable.
Dollars stuck behind a bank holiday.
Stablecoins frozen or blocked.
On ramps broken.
Off ramps gated.
Meanwhile Bitcoin still trades globally because Bitcoin does not need permission to trade.
But you do need permission to move fiat into the game.
š§ The trap nobody talks about
If timing works once or twice, your brain calls it a skill.
You start thinking you found the cheat code.
You promise youāll stop ānear the topā but you wonāt.
Because now it āworks.ā
So you keep pushing it until you get caught on the wrong side when the world shifts fast.
šÆ My conclusion
Everyone wants to sell the top and buy the bottom.
Thatās the same dream gamblers have.
This is not a casino.
This is the greatest wealth transfer in human history.
In a real monetary reset, most assets get dumped and liquidity runs to the strongest escape valve.
Bitcoin.
ā
So Iād rather be early than clever.
ā
Iād rather be positioned than locked out.
ā
I DCA in and build the stack.
Because the moment you need Bitcoin most might be the exact moment you canāt buy it.
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š§ Why Timing Bitcoin Can Get You Locked Out
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