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Huge welcome
@nek-smart-2190 welcome to the community! Feel free to post here about yourself and where you are at with your trading! Cheers!
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Huge welcome
Anyone trading Alt Coins? (APE)
We've had a big run in MEME coins over the last few months but there are several laggers in the sector that haven't made their move yet. I wouldnt directly classify APE coin as a MEME coin as such, buts its a ticker with previously HUGE hype which hasn't seen a run back to 2023 levels (which in my mind is just a matter of time) Obviously position sizing is KING, you wouldnt want to go in with an position so large you cant afford any swings but the likelihood of this returning to 2023 levels is REALLY high. 85%+ potential gain to be had with a 16% risk drawdown to lows. Seems nice to me!!
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Anyone trading Alt Coins? (APE)
Election Year! What does that mean?
The USA has a very predictable 4 year election cycle Election > Post Election > Mid Term > Pre Election Currently we are in an Election Year, A majority of these years since 1950 have showed strong periods of growth. In regards to the small percentage of times where this is not the case, sometimes these election years have been pretty brutal but that's due to some underlying crisis or pandemic. If market conditions are "normal" then its typically a strong period for the U.S. stocks and the Dollar Index (DXY) I'm expecting to see a big year for Stocks, and now cryptocurrency also. This is the year for building a net long portfolio that I can assure you! Reactive risk management protocol, unless something significant happens economically then it would be a strong year across the board for the U.S.
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Election Year! What does that mean?
GDP predicts move in the S&P500
When there are 2X variables (A,B) only 4X outcomes can occur;- - Variable A goes down and Variable B goes down. - Variable A goes Up and Variable B goes up. - Variable A goes down and Variable B goes up. - Variable A goes Up and Variable B goes down. These 2 variables I've been looking at is the S&P500 and GDP. We looking at quarterly GDP and comparing it to 6 month lagged data from the S&P500, the S&P predicts GDP with accuracy all the back since 1950 A - If both S&P500 and GDP were reported down, we assign a 0,0 and a score of 0. B - If both S&P500 and GDP were reported up, we assign a 1,1 and a score of 2. C - If S&P500 is reported down and GDP is reported up, we assign a 0,1 and a score of 1 D - If S&P500 is reported up and GDP is reported down, we assign a 1,0 and a score of 1. Historically GDP explains 60.85% (1,1) + 8.19% (0,0) = 69.04% of S&P500 moves (When they move in the same direction) The 0,0 (A) situation happens a total of 23 times out of the 281 Quarters and the 1,1 (B) situation happens a total of 171 times out of 281 Quarters. When the S&P500 and GDP don’t move in the opposite direction, most of the time it’s because the S&P500 moves down and GDP doesn’t go down i.e. profit taking, price corrections whilst underlying GDP growth remains. The 0,1 (C) situation happens a total of 72 times our of 281 Quarters and the 1,9 (D) situation happens only 15 times in 281 Quarters. Only 5.34% of times has the S&P500 moved up and GDP has gone down since 1950. When you add 69.04% + 25.62% = 94.66% of cases. Scenarios A B & C, if we can predict those situations, we have massive odds in our favour. Even just being able to predict them both moving in the same direction gives us really good odds.
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New comment Mar 28
GDP predicts move in the S&P500
Basic Statistics Guide
We defiantly don't need to be masters of statistics here but we do require a base level understanding when trying to draw out solid conclusion from our data, Its in the detail where real skill is gurgled! We're trying to get this right here! I cannot emphasis how easy it all is when you're skilled enough, you experience much less friction when trying to absorb new information because everything just makes sense straight off the bat! Take a look at the Basic Statistics Guide and familiarise yourself with some of the terminology and ideas, it'll be invaluable experience which will all compound one on top of another!
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