Last time I posted this, the 30-year fixed was 6.54%. Today it's 6.79%. Up a quarter point in about four weeks. In 2024 and into 2025, I was underwriting deals with a rate cut baked into the back end. Not as a bonus, as part of the plan. The thinking went: buy it, stabilize/renovate it, refinance in 18 months when rates come down, drop the debt service, and the monthly cash flow improves without me doing anything else. That cut never came. Rates today are roughly where they were, and depending on which month you pull, they're higher than when I was running those numbers. So think about what that means for a deal underwritten that way. The cash flow I was projecting for year two was never going to show up. The property didn't get worse, my assumption did. If the deal only worked because of a refi at a lower rate, it never worked. I just hadn't found out yet. The rate is the one input in your model you have zero control over and no accurate ability to forecast. Treat it that way. Underwrite at today's rate. If it cash flows today, at the rate you can actually lock this week, you have a deal. If it needs a cut to work, you don't have a deal, you have a bet on the Fed, and you're not getting paid to make that bet. A cut, if it ever comes, should be upside you didn't count on. Never the thing holding the deal together.

Just finished chapter 4 of Am I Being Too Subtle?, which is set in the early-'70s crash — overbuilding, a REIT blowup, rates spiking, and lenders sitting on properties they didn't want and couldn't run. Everyone else was frozen. Zell looked at it differently: the supply/demand math had already corrected, nobody was building anything new, so anything he bought below replacement cost was going to look cheap on the other side. Between 1974 and 1977 he assembled roughly $4 billion in assets, mostly on personal guarantees with very little cash down. Sellers were so desperate to get out from under the debt service that the equity was almost free. Real estate moves in cycles. 2008. Arguably 2020. Roughly every decade, though never on the dot. Which raises the question: where are we right now? My read is we're on the tail end of a bull run. Whether that means a real correction shows up in 12 months or 24 and which asset class it hits harder, I have no idea. Just something to think about! But the reason it matters is this: the money gets made when everyone is running away from an asset class. Real estate, small businesses, stocks — doesn't matter. That's when sellers are motivated and competition disappears. Buying when everyone is running in is just how you overpay with extra steps. Zell wasn't a genius in 1974, he was awake while everyone else was paralyzed. Where do you think we are in the cycle, and what are you doing about it right now — buying, holding cash, or building your list for when it turns?

Over the past decade, Florida didn't just grow its apartment market. It rewrote the national demand map entirely. Florida's share of national apartment demand nearly doubled, from 6.7% in 2017 to 12.2% in 2026. And it wasn't just Miami, Orlando, and Tampa driving it. Of the 20 markets with the largest increases in national apartment demand share since 2017, 9 are in Florida. Jacksonville, Fort Myers, Daytona Beach, Lakeland, Sarasota, Fort Walton Beach, all top 20. Statewide. Simultaneously. No other state came close to that breadth. The forces behind it were real, as everyone here knows: migration from the Northeast and Midwest, remote work flexibility, business relocation, retirees, and a cost of living that still undercut coastal alternatives. Developers followed. Institutional capital followed. The cycle became self-reinforcing. Here's the thing that actually surprised me though, several Florida markets pulled this off despite massive supply pressure. High vacancy. Elevated concessions. Some of the country's largest construction waves. And they still grew their share of national demand long-term. But that's exactly what makes the question worth asking right now. Supply is still elevated in several Florida metros. Insurance costs have exploded. Affordability is getting squeezed. The same migration tailwinds that fueled the boom are showing signs of slowing. If the insurance costs stated by Fox Business are even half correct that is insane!! Are you still bullish on Florida multifamily?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRYOqqB4hn0 @Zachary Cahill will give you some great insight into structuring deals with partners and where/how to add value. I do like Ken, but when you're listening to guys like this, it's important to take bits and pieces of what they're saying and apply them to your own situation. They're playing in an entirely different league with a different background and strategy, so just keep that in mind.

https://product.costar.com/suiteapps/home/news/article/1049458038 Many of you may not have access to the full article, but you can catch Scott Everett on the Powers Podcast, it's a fascinating listen seeing the predicament he's currently in. I broke it down below for you. S2 Capital — a Dallas firm that acquired 51,000+ units and raised $13 billion, just formally wound down its $400M multifamily fund. ~150 investors are walking away with zero return. What went wrong: • Launched the fund in Sept 2022 — right as the Fed started hiking aggressively • Loaded up on floating-rate debt — when rates surged 50%+, so did interest payments • Bet heavily on Sun Belt workforce housing — demand was supposed to be fueled by immigration • Trump reversed immigration policies → demand collapsed just as record new supply hit the market • Result: 20-30% rent declines, crushed occupancy, underwater properties They tried everything — sold assets, modified loans, shopped for 9 months with a capital placement agent. Still failed. The takeaway for you: 1. Floating rate = loaded gun. If your deal only pencils because you're betting on rates coming down, that's not a deal. 2. Demand assumptions are not guarantees. S2 underwrote to immigration-driven demand. That policy flipped. What are your assumptions and what happens if they're wrong? 3. Supply kills markets. Sun Belt got hit with 40-year record supply. Know your market's pipeline before you buy. 4. Size doesn't equal safety. $13B raised, still zero return. Operators at every level get wiped by bad leverage + bad timing. Cash flow first. Stress test everything. Know where your rents are actually coming from.