🎯 Overall Strategy & Key Takeaways 🚀 Forecast (5/18 – 5/24)
- 🚨 Trump Truth Social, 5/17 5:26 PM ET — AI-generated images of Middle East map with American flag overlay and arrows pointing at Iran. Public re-threat to renew strikes. Netanyahu convened limited security talks the same day to discuss Iran war. (~3.5 hrs old at scan time. Highest-impact weekend catalyst.) The Times of Israel - 🛢️ Strait of Hormuz now in week 11 of blockage. Brent holding $110.47, Saudi Aramco warning of 2027 normalization timeline if no opening by mid-June. - 🌐 China trade deal aftermath: Friday selloff was driven by China commerce ministry calling Trump's $17B/year ag + 200 Boeing aircraft deal "preliminary" — markets disappointed. No Sunday walkback. - 🪙 Bitcoin slid below $78K weekend — $78,258 at scan time. Crypto Fear & Greed at 29-31 (Fear). Risk-off bleeding from crypto into Monday equity open. DigitalCoinPrice - 📊 NAAIM print Wednesday 5/13 = 77.34 (vs 96.67 prior week). Institutions de-risked into the ATH. This is your single most underweighted bearish tell going into Monday. - 📅 Earnings Monday BMO: BIDU. Wall St looking for $1.70 EPS (vs $2.72 YoY). TipRanks - 📅 Fed Speakers Monday: Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference 8:45 AM ET (low-impact). 🎯 Overall Strategy & Key Takeaways 🚀 Monday Gameplan (5/18): 1. 6:00–6:30 AM PST pre-market: Watch ES reaction to overnight Iran headlines. Below 7,400 = defensive day. Above 7,440 = relief rally setup. 2. Skip the first 15 minutes of cash. Per your own framework: "No new day trades before 6:45 AM PST." 3. BIDU 5:00 AM PST (8 AM ET) earnings: Wait for the print, then wait for the second candle. Don't pre-position. China ADR + geopolitical tape = headline risk. 4. Energy long bias all day unless Trump walks back the Iran tone in pre-market. CVX is the cleanest vehicle, XLE is the basket alternative. 5. NVDA — DO NOT chase pre-earnings. Dashboard plan stands: only enter via June 12 245 call spread, and only if NVDA holds >$241 going into Wednesday close. Theta on weeklies will eat you alive given your documented pattern of holding short-dated into uncertainty.