📊 Market Update — Thursday, March 26
Good afternoon family. Let’s talk about what’s happening in this market and what we should be doing with our money right now. This is going to be a real, honest conversation. What’s Driving This Market Markets are being hit hard today, driven by rising U.S.-Iran tensions, surging oil prices, and growing doubt around any ceasefire deal. Yesterday we got a rally on peace deal hopes. Iran rejected it. Markets overreacted going up, and now we’re paying for it going down. Oil is up about 5%, sitting near $94.80 a barrel. Until that comes down and we get real clarity on the geopolitical situation, every “up day” you see is likely a trap. This is a war-headline market — unpredictable by nature. SPY — The Big Picture SPY is currently sitting around $647–649, right on a critical breakdown zone. Here’s what the structure tells us: • Price is below all 3 moving averages — the 20, 50, and 200-day • The 20 SMA is crossing below the 50 — a classic bearish signal • We have a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart • Volume is elevated, meaning sellers are active and in control Key Levels To Know: 🔴 $660.63 — Major resistance. No bullish case until price reclaims this with conviction 🟡 $654.26 — First potential buyer response zone 🟠 $649.60 — Breakdown confirmation zone (we’re sitting right here) 🔴 $644.91 — Next downside target if $649 fails Until we reclaim $660.63, the bears are in charge. Former Leaders Are Rolling Over — This Is A Warning This is the part that worries me most. The stocks that held up the longest — the last soldiers standing — are now breaking down. Memory stocks like MU, STX, SNDK, and WDC are breaking below their 20 and 50-day SMAs. When the strongest stocks finally give in, that is historically a signal of deeper market weakness ahead — not a buying opportunity. Our Positions — Let’s Be Real FSLY $40 Call (Sep 26) — If you’re near breakeven or slightly up, that is your exit signal in this environment. FSLY stock itself is down nearly 3% on the day. There is no reason to hold through chop when you can lock in your cost basis or a small profit.