As you know, when I present trade ideas here, I usually go very deep into the analysis. Each position is built on multiple layers of research: fundamentals, implied volatility levels, volatility surface (both skew and term structure), liquidity, and additional signals I track and I'll share in the posts here. The goal is always to identify trades with strong premium, high probability, and structures that are relatively easy to manage. But today I decided to do something a little different. After our latest fund portfolio meeting and internal discussion, we opened 30 new trades across the portfolio. Instead of writing a long analysis for each one, I will simply show you 7 of those trades exactly as they were placed. Below are 7 of the 30 new positions currently running in our portfolio. 1. ADBE Iron Condor Structure: Buy 235P / Sell 240P / Sell 310C / Buy 315C (37 DTE) Premium collected: $197; POP: 57%; P50 probability: 65%; Beta-weighted delta: +0.21; Theta: +$3/day; Max profit: $197; Max loss: $303 2. COIN Iron Condor Structure: Buy 130P / Sell 140P / Sell 240C / Buy 250C (65 DTE) Premium collected: $350; POP: 61%; P50 probability: 74%; Beta-weighted delta: -1.61; Theta: +$3.28/day; Max profit: $350; Max loss: $650 3. CRM Put Ratio Spread Structure: Buy 185P / Sell 2x175P (37 DTE) Credit received: $117; POP: 86%; Beta-weighted delta: +3.91; Theta: +$9.73; Max profit: $1,117 4. NKE Naked Put Structure: Sell 50P (65 DTE) Premium collected: $152; POP: 75%; P50 probability: 86%; Beta-weighted delta: +2.22; Theta: +$2.47; Max profit: $152 5. PEP Strangle Structure: Sell 145P / Sell 170C (37 DTE) Premium collected: $279; POP: 71%; P50 probability: 83%; Beta-weighted delta: -0.69; Theta: +$9.70; Max profit: $279 6. AMD Put Credit Spread Structure: Buy 180P / Sell 190P (37 DTE) Premium collected: $262; POP: 66%; P50 probability: 78%; Beta-weighted delta: +5.37; Theta: +$2.03; Max profit: $262 7. VISA Risk-Free Butterfly (Synthetic Bonds with Lottery Ticket)

NVDA reports after the bell tonight, and this is the single most important event of the week for the entire technology complex, for AI capex sentiment, and potentially for sector rotation across the market! If NVDA re-prices the AI narrative, QQQ moves, growth vs value rotation shifts, even energy and cyclicals feel it through flows. Now here’s what’s interesting. Consensus is extreme: 65-66B revenue, +66% YoY. EPS up 70%, Data Center nearly the whole engine. The base case is already beat and strong guide. You'd expect options to price this like a bomb, but they aren't! The at-the-money straddle implies roughly a 5-6% move. Over the last 12 quarters, the average implied move was closer to 7.5%. By NVDA's own standards, this event is being priced smaller than usual. That's the first non-obvious signal. The second one is even more important. Historically, NVDA's implied earnings move trades at about 1.5x the tech sector (XLK). This quarter, that ratio is closer to 0.9x. Read that again: the market is pricing NVDA as less idiosyncratic than the sector, at a moment when AI capex concentration arguably makes it more idiosyncratic than ever. Yes, front-week IV is high (72% vs 55% baseline). Yes, there will likely be IV crush. But the lazy trade "short the rich IV" assumes the event premium itself is bloated. This time, the event premium is compressed relative to history and relative to tech. That changes the game, so we're not putting on calendar spreads today. The edge, in my view, sits in: - NVDA vs sector variance - Defined-risk or asymmetric volatility harvesting The market is not overpricing fear, it's compressing NVDA's uniqueness into sector volatility, and if that assumption breaks tonight, the move won't care about your straddle math. Because the event move is priced relatively small (5-6%) and the front-week premium is not unusually fat versus history, forcing a weekly Jade Lizard would mean selling compressed event variance with thin margin for error. So instead of playing the binary print, we step out to April (51 DTE) and build a safer Earnings Jade Lizard.

Hi, I just finished modeling the SPY Volga surface into the close (see attached). Now imagine this: you sold the OTM strangles, you stress-tested a 5-point volatility move, looked at the potential drawdown, and you accepted it. Then the spike actually hit, and you lost double. Why? Because your platform lied to you! Most retail brokers show you a static snapshot of your exposure RIGHT NOW. They don't show you what happens to that exposure when IV moves from 15 to 25. The reality is Vega isn't a constant. When volatility rips, the entire surface reprices, your short Vega becomes significantly more negative exactly when you need it to shrink. That's Volga (also known as Vomma). Think about it: if Delta has Gamma, Vega has Volga. It's the second-order Greek that measures how your Vega changes as volatility moves. If you're short the wings, you are Short Volga. My rule: don't size off today's Vega. Ask: What is my Vega if IV jumps 20-30 points? If you haven't modeled that, you don't know your true position size!

Hey! I wanted to share my first options trade idea here for your review. Last week we skipped trading AMZN earnings. Options were pricing 7.5%, reality was -14%, so short gamma was not the place to be. In my personal view it was only a repricing of capex and FCF timing, nothing more. AWS re-accelerated, ads keep growing >20%, NA retail margins are improving, but the market suddenly realized buybacks and FCF are pushed out by heavy AI capex. Post-earnings, the setup changed. The shock is out, downside skew is still rich, and fundamental downside convexity is much lower than before the print. That's why ratio risk now beats naked risk, so today I'm expressing this via a March put ratio: