Dividend market briefing, July 30, 2026 Dividend increases/cuts Union Pacific raised its quarterly dividend 3% to $1.42 per share, payable September 30 to holders of record August 31. That marks 20 consecutive years of increases. Shell plc declared its Q2 2026 interim dividend at $0.3906 per ordinary share. On the downside, Shutterstock's board suspended the company's quarterly cash dividend entirely, citing capital allocation priorities like debt reduction; the stock fell nearly 9% in after hours trading following the news. UPS also flagged a concern for dividend growth investors: CFO Brian Dykes confirmed the company won't raise its dividend in 2026, ending a 16 year streak of annual increases. That's a freeze rather than a cut, but it's a notable break in a long track record. BCB Bancorp separately suspended its dividend reinvestment and stock purchase plan effective August 6, distinct from the dividend itself. Notable moves SCHD and VYM remain the two most watched dividend ETFs, and they're diverging this year. SCHD is up 25.58% year to date with a 3.30% yield, benefiting from heavier energy sector exposure. VYM, with a lower 2.25% yield, has gained about 19.12% over the past year and carries a lower 0.04% expense ratio versus SCHD's 0.06%. REITs broadly have had a strong year, with the Morningstar US Real Estate Index up 12.98% year to date versus 10.37% for the broader Morningstar US Market Index. Realty Income stands out within that group, yielding about 5% while posting 99% occupancy and 7% AFFO growth, which some analysts argue makes the "retail REITs are struggling" narrative overstated. The three most remarkable changes today: Shutterstock's dividend suspension and the accompanying stock drop, UPS ending its 16 year dividend growth streak, and the widening performance and yield gap between SCHD and VYM driven by sector composition. Market context The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% in this week's meeting, a 9-3 vote with three regional presidents dissenting, against a backdrop of inflation running above the 2% target for more than five years. Despite the hold, Bank of America is now forecasting three 25 basis point hikes later in 2026 (September, October, December), and Deutsche Bank expects two. Markets are pricing an 85% probability of at least one hike this year. That's a meaningfully hawkish shift and matters for dividend investors because rate sensitive, yield heavy sectors like utilities and REITs tend to compress in value as risk free Treasury yields rise, while financials tend to benefit from wider net interest margins.