When will Housing hit bottom? The million dollar question. Knowing what we know about the real rates coming down or possibly going negative, I could confidently say yes it has bottomed. But things can change fast and if gas prices and fear of economic chaos diminish, I feel that reduction of inflation expectations would trigger the downturn. So backwards from how people see the economy. The elevated inflation expectations lowers the real rates making the economy less restricted and the finacial system could possibly find themselves negative with the real rate, stealth stimulus. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/positive-housing-demand-leads-to-inventory-almost-going-negative-yoy/

Not financial advice, theory charting only based on the use of Simon's "recessionless recession", monetary policy, macro events, and my own research.

https://x.com/KevRGordon/status/2053881596432818344?s=20 In past, I would have dismissed this X post as nonsense, ignore and decide to believe the usual narrative from my friends and circles right now - "markets are in a bubble, valuations are crazy, this is going to end badly" and the most common one, "inflation is coming, FED will hike in July causing a crash". All these above scenarios are possible, but understanding credible threat theory and negative real rates better, I also believe FED will likely hold rates (not hike), but jaw bone threats and allow real rates to go negative as inflation expectations indeed pick up. And to everyone's consternation, markets rise even further for several months to come. Note in X post, 1998 July-August, there was a significant correction in markets (there will be volatility) but Nasdaq then went on to massive bubble till 2000 March. Also note, several factors are different from today and 1998 (for example, 1998 had Russian/LTCM crisis, FED started cutting in September and inflation was tame) but initial tech boom was starting then (as now) and when I check with AI, negative real rates did play a role in the final stage when Nasdaq went nuts 1999/2000.

Clip below, recommend begin at marker 9 min 50 seconds for about 8 minutes. They discuss higher inflation hurts consumers but drives assets higher (lower real rates) But fine balancing act- if inflation and assets go up too much, Wall Street perceives risk of FED hikes rates - which could temporarily impact assets, markets etc. Argument is made due to current high debt levels (vs e.g. prior to 2008), risk FED actually hiking rates is likely low. So maybe we hear in coming weeks/months FED resorting to "credible threats" of hawkishness etc Good periods to $ cost average into assets https://youtu.be/LXs5lTHkve8?si=Ckg41Ozhd3_e_dV8

Watching these sectors (homebuilders, real estate- etfs XHB, XLRE) next few months - even if Fed keeps rates steady, sound hawkish and/or bring up higher inflation expectations. Understanding credible threat framework better now, would not be surprised if those sectors actually (surprise!) fare better than mainstream narrative thinks. Let's see.