Bobby Portis O7.5 Rebounds @ 1.88 ✅ Ready? Here’s my breakdown Milwaukee Bucks bring a significant advantage into this matchup, particularly in Rebounding Control, where they average a Total Rebounds/Game of 51.2 (#22) and a Defensive Rebound Percentage of 76.5% (#8). These strengths align with Oklahoma City Thunder’s defensive tendencies. OKC allows opponents to secure an Opponent Total Rebounds/Game of 57.5 (#29) and an Opponent Defensive Rebound Percentage of 77.1% (#20), indicating that while they have solid rebounding capabilities, they are slightly below Milwaukee in controlling the glass. Milwaukee’s rebounding consistency holds up on the road, where they average 50.1 total rebounds while OKC allows an average of 47.9 rebounds to visiting teams. In their last three games, Milwaukee has averaged 48.7 rebounds while OKC has surrendered 53 rebounds, further exposing their weaknesses on the defensive glass. Portis’s favourable position is further supported by OKC’s struggles on the glass, where they rank #29 in Opponent Offensive Rebound Percentage at 27.9%, highlighting their inability to limit second-chance opportunities. Milwaukee’s strong Defensive Rebound Percentage of 76.5% (#8) creates a significant edge, especially with Portis’s expanded role when Khris Middleton is out, as he averages 8.1 rebounds per game in Middleton’s absence compared to 6.6 when he plays. Portis also benefits from increased minutes, averaging 24.4 per game without Middleton, ensuring more opportunities to secure rebounds and contribute defensively. OKC’s recent rebounding issues extend to their opponent’s overall shot efficiency, allowing a high 52.7% Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage (#7 worst) while struggling to box out effectively. Milwaukee’s Three-Point Percentage of 38.9% (#3) leads to longer rebound opportunities, further favouring Portis, whose defensive rebound positioning capitalises on these shots. OKC also ranks #29 in Opponent Offensive Rebounds Allowed per Game (12.9) - Portis should see increase minutes here and he is in a spot to thrive on boards today.

🏀Alperen Sengun = 20.5- Under Points (Team - Houston Rockets) Sengun has gone under this line in both games against the Warriors this season, scoring 14 and 16 points. He is under in 9 of his last 10 games versus Golden State and has stayed under in 63% of games this season (15/24). The Warriors rank 5th best in points allowed to opposing centers and excel at limiting high shot and free throw volume—two key factors for Sengun to hit this line. They allow the 6th fewest free throw attempts in the NBA. In their matchups this season, the Warriors held Sengun to just 10 FGA and 6 FTA in game 1, and 15 FGA and 2 FTA in game 2. Despite shooting 50% in both games, he finished with only 14 and 16 points.

Stephen Curry O35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 (-114) Curry has frequently articulated his ambition to “win it all,” with the NBA Cup representing the final accolade absent from his illustrious career achievements. This contest against Houston presents a tailored opportunity for Curry to exhibit his multifaceted skillset on a pivotal stage. Houston demonstrates exceptional strength in defensive metrics such as effective field goal percentage (50.0%, #2) and Defensive Two-Point Percentage (49.2%, #1), underscoring their proficiency in suppressing opponent scoring efficiency. However, their defensive efficacy falters in specific areas, particularly against dynamic guards. While Houston effectively limits assists per game (21.7 APG allowed, #1), they exhibit deficiencies in generating turnovers, forcing only 12.4 per game (#18). This shortfall in defensive disruption, coupled with a low Opponent Steals per Play rate (6.2%, #27), provides Curry with an advantageous landscape to execute his offensive strategies with minimal resistance. Golden State’s offensive framework aligns favorably against Houston’s tendencies. Despite a modest #23 ranking in Shooting Efficiency (1.110), the Warriors’ exceptional ball movement, evidenced by their Assist-to-Field Goals Made Ratio (0.699, #3), ensures efficient creation of scoring opportunities. Curry’s integral role as the team’s offensive engine is particularly significant against Houston’s Defensive Rebound Percentage (70.2%, #2). Golden State’s proficiency in securing second-chance points through an Offensive Rebounding Rate of 27.4% (#8) mitigates Houston’s rebounding strengths. Houston’s defensive vulnerabilities extend beyond rebounding. They allow the highest total rebounds to opponents per game (59.8, #1), creating ample opportunities for Curry and Golden State’s supporting cast to dominate the glass. Houston’s fouling tendencies result in opponents attempting 23.6 free throws per game (#22), providing further opportunities for Curry to excel at the charity stripe.

Bobby Portis O10.5 Points @ 1.88 (-114) ✅ I am not too sure about you’s but Portis was ridiculously efficient last game against Brooklyn, going 23 points on 9-10 shooting, including 5-5 from deep, along with five rebounds, one assist, three blocks, and one steal in 31 minutes. Long story short - he was everywhere. Middleton’s slowly increasing return naturally limits Portis; however, Portis has always been productive for the Bucks with or without Khris Middleton - and he has always demonstrated consistent performances, averaging 14.2 points, 8.7 rebounds & 0.3 assists with Middleton over the last 3 seasons whilst averaging 15.2 points, 8.9 rebounds & 0.3 assists without Middleton over the last 3 seasons: • ⁠2023-24 Season: 12.3 points, 7.3 rebounds with Middleton; 16.7 points, 7.6 rebounds without Middleton. • ⁠2022-23 Season: 15.4 points, 9.8 rebounds with Middleton; 14.3 points, 9.8 rebounds without Middleton. • ⁠2021-22 Season: 14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds with Middleton; 14.6 points, 9.3 rebounds without Middleton. His effiency last game was to good to ignore, particulary from deep. Given that the Magic rank last in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed at 31.1%, If Portis is even 3 quarters as efficient as he was last game he clears this. Orlando allows an effective field goal percentage of 52.2% (#24 in the league), further highlighting opportunities for Portis to capitalise on open looks and continue with his hot hand - whether or not a thin Orlando hangs around or if Milwaukee has put them to the sword by half time. Smokey bet 💨 Bobby Portis 2+ 3PM & MIL to win @ 3.20 (+220) ✅

KAT Over 2.5 Assists Vs Raptors. A slight injury doubt, but I think he'll play and if he does I think he can make this line. He averages exactly 3 Assists this season and in his previous 3 against Raptors he's gone over this line. 🤞🏻🤞🏻