Sorry it’s been slower in here. Currently I’m trapped in Dubai trying to get out. I’m safe, but obviously not fun. Promise I have lots of stuff for you when I can get out.

The Year in One Sentence… “2025 was the year markets rewarded adaptability — and punished anyone who assumed the old playbook still worked.” If you were flexible, selective, and patient → you probably did well. If you chased narratives without respecting price → the market reminded you who’s in charge. ✅ 2025 Market Recap (The Big Picture) Stocks - Large-cap tech and AI-linked names dominated headlines again — but this year came with more pullbacks, more skepticism, and more “prove it” moments. - Indexes finished strong overall, but returns were uneven. A few names did the heavy lifting. Many stocks went nowhere. 💡 Key lesson: Indexes going up ≠ most people making money. Crypto - Bitcoin spent much of the year consolidating, frustrating both bulls and bears. - Institutional interest quietly increased, even while price action stayed boring. 💡Key lesson: Boring accumulation phases are where future volatility is born. ✅ What Actually Mattered in 2025 (Not the Noise) 🤖 AI Grew Up 2025 was the year AI stopped being a buzzword and started being a business conversation. Markets moved from “AI will change everything” to: ➡️ Who’s profitable? Who’s spending too much? Who actually wins? Why this matters: The easy money phase is over. The selective money phase has begun. 🏦 The Fed Lost Its Scare Power Rates still mattered — but they didn’t dominate every single week like prior years. Markets learned to live with uncertainty instead of waiting for perfect clarity. Why this matters: The market doesn’t need certainty to move. It needs direction. 💰 Liquidity Was the Real Driver When liquidity expanded → risk assets breathed. When liquidity tightened → volatility snapped back fast. Why this matters: Narratives follow liquidity. Always. ✅ The Biggest Mistakes Traders Made in 2025 ❌ Overtrading chop So many accounts died not from big losses — but from death by boredom. ❌ Confusing conviction with stubbornness Holding losers “because the thesis is right” was expensive.

🚨 The Money Memo (working title) Edition: Week Ending Dec 17, 2025 Vibe: Markets are spicy, but your plan should be boring. ✅ The 60-Second Market Snapshot Stocks (risk-on, but with a weird limp): • SPY (S&P 500 ETF): ~$673.90 • QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF): ~$603.75 • DIA (Dow ETF): ~$481.02 • IWM (Small caps): ~$248.56 Crypto (still acting like crypto): • Bitcoin: ~$86,569 • Ethereum: ~$2,845.57 🤓 Kyle’s read: We’re not in “everything is broken” mode… we’re in “stop paying any price for the shiny AI stuff” mode. ⸻ ✅ What Mattered Last Week (and why it moved price) A) AI stocks stopped getting a free pass. Markets have been sliding for multiple sessions largely because big AI names have been taking heat—bubble talk, capex worries, and “how soon is the payoff?” B) Data-center reality check = “show me the money.” Reuters flagged a big snag around an Oracle-linked data center financing situation, which poured gasoline on the “AI spending is getting expensive” narrative. C) Crypto: year-end vibes + macro nerves. BTC has been drifting lower in cautious trade. And markets are eyeing big expirations (“triple witching” + options expiries) as potential volatility fuel. ✅ The Week Ahead: Your “Don’t Get Surprised” Calendar The big one: November CPI drops Thursday, Dec 18 (delayed schedule). Translation: liquidity is thinner into the holidays, so a “normal” inflation print can still create an abnormal move. 🧐 Kyle’s playbook (simple): - If CPI surprises hot → yields up, growth/AI could feel it first. - If CPI surprises cool → risk assets breathe, but watch for “one good print doesn’t fix everything” whiplash. ✅ Setups & Watchlist (how I’m thinking, not what you “must” do) Theme 1: “AI ≠ automatic wins.” This isn’t anti-AI. It’s pro-price. When the crowd gets emotional, I get selective. Theme 2: Small caps = sneaky tell. IWM matters because it hints at risk appetite beyond the megacaps. If small caps can’t hold bids, the “broad rally” story gets weaker.

Ben is proof that living in a small town and working a full-time 9-5 don't have to stop you from day trading success! @Ben Tatrow

What do you like to do on a long weekend for some R&R? Thanks @Angie Boule for the post topic :)