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UE University
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5 contributions to UE University
Jan 31 •
Close To Neutral
In this Christopher Waller statement he is looking at a weak labor market as a reason to cut rates in an attempt to reach a neutral stance. However he also said that policy is slightly above neutral. This is where the credible threat theory says if inflation expectations rises the policy will shift to neutral without an interest rate adjustment. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260130a.htm
1 like • Jan 31
Didn’t minimum wage raise in certain parts of the country and labor rates rise due to hard to fill positions due to lack/loss of labor? If overhead costs are too much for some businesses, they opt to reduce staffing rather than go under or bankrupt/close doors. I wonder if any of these situations were considered by Cantillon. Another thought; they say AI will affect some parts of the labor market … is this part of the FOMC’s consideration to lower rates? If they they want to hit their goal of slight over 2 percent over time, do they consider the folks that lose their job or livelihood they may end up homeless/drug use or may not want to deal with life any longer? Does not the unemployment rate indirectly affect the suicide rate in economies? Is that calculated into the risk of reaching the neutral rate? Very thought provoking, thanks Simon! Hopefully those struggling will be able to hang on long enough until things turnaround.
1 like • Jan 28
It’s all for the minerals that may help sustain certain causes in the future at the expense of another societies way of life. Will this way of force, provide unforeseen benefits for those Eskimos and Danish folks and bring more riches and technology to that part of the world? Is that what the plan is for one party to prosper or for all those involved to? Greenland is too cold to bed down or retire for the average person. Will the cost of operations over there be overlooked by the profits they plan to siphon from the land? I’d like to see the cost analysis the next 20 years projection. Being in the middle of a Storm Condition Delta is not fun and to have a flight delayed for x days is a major pass for me. Thank you.
Jan 27 •
A grumble
It annoys me that many of these papers go into long elaborately detailed tangents explaining the quirks of and justifications for their study methodologies which are generally just totally irrelevant detail to sift through to get to the point and figure out what they were really looking for and what they found. Just wanted to complain about that a little.
4 likes • Jan 28
That’s why I’m here. I don’t have the patience to go through all those speeches. That’s why I watch UE and signed up for UE University lol. Thanks Simon!
Jan 27 •
The Fed Intervention
There is a lot of chatter on the news about the fed intervention in the Japanese Yen. I wanted to share a portion of the credible threat theory and look at the Brenanke speech and this particular statement. “The Fed can inject money into the economy in still other ways. For example, the Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt, as well as domestic government debt. Potentially, this class of assets offers huge scope for Fed operations, as the quantity of foreign assets eligible for purchase by the Fed is several times the stock of U.S. government debt.” It would only seem to be the expected path of the fed considering this quote. I myself have thought about this many times and wondered what would trigger such an event.
1 like • Jan 28
I wonder if these “programs” will prohibit stock buybacks and emphasize increased training/employment through innovation and production by recruiting the best talent with livable wages/salaries and benefits. What other outcomes are they seeking? Good stuff Simon!
Jan 20 •
Happy 🌮 Tuesday
Let's all do something today, no matter how small, to move the needle forward and get ahead in our ability to live better. I DIE everyday, daily Incremental execution. What is your something for the day? Big or small, share them all!!
2 likes • Jan 21
I just joined this community, that counts right? Lol
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