Weekend markets are fundamentally different markets, not just quieter versions of weekdays. Understanding why behavior changes is what separates traders who survive weekends from those who give profits back. 1. Why Weekend Liquidity Is Dangerous Liquidity is participation. On weekends: Institutions reduce exposure Market makers widen spreads Spot volume drops significantly This creates fragile price action. When liquidity is thin: Smaller orders move price more Stops become easier to target Price reacts emotionally, not structurally This is why weekend candles often look violent but go nowhere. Key concept: Low liquidity does not mean strong moves. It means unstable moves. 2. The Mechanics of Weekend Traps Weekend traps form because traders apply weekday logic to weekend conditions. Common traps: Breakouts without volume Trend continuation assumptions Holding leverage through illiquid hours What actually happens: Price breaks a level Retail piles in Liquidity is insufficient to support continuation Price reverses sharply This is not manipulation. It’s order imbalance. Price moves to where liquidity exists, not where charts look good. 3. Why Stop Hunts Increase on Weekends Stops are liquidity pools. On weekends: Fewer orders = easier access to stops Obvious highs/lows get targeted Equal highs/lows are magnets Price doesn’t need news. It needs orders. When stops are hit: Forced selling or buying occurs Open interest drops Volatility spikes briefly After stops are cleared, price often stalls or reverses. This is why patience after wicks is critical. 4. BTC vs ETH Behavior in Thin Liquidity (Deeper Read) BTC and ETH react very differently on weekends. BTC: Deeper liquidity Acts as capital anchor More resistant to random wicks ETH: Higher beta Lower relative liquidity Overreacts in thin markets This is why: ETH often wicks harder ETH leads downside moves ETH exaggerates upside moves Advanced read: If ETH is volatile but BTC is stable, that volatility is likely noise, not trend.

Today the focus shifts to liquidity and leverage, which quietly control short-term price action. Two things matter most right now: Liquidity Liquidity shows where large players are targeting stops and forced liquidations. Price moves toward areas of imbalance, not where retail expects it to go. Funding Rates Funding tells us who is crowded. • Positive funding = longs paying shorts • Negative funding = shorts paying longs Crowded trades are vulnerable trades. What this means: • Extreme funding increases liquidation risk • Flat funding = healthier conditions • Liquidity gets taken before direction resumes When liquidity is the driver: • Moves are fast • Reversals are violent • Patience saves capital Let liquidity clear before chasing price.

Markets today are being driven by geopolitical risk, not technicals or options flow. Two key macro factors are influencing sentiment: 1. Iran instability Escalating tensions, economic pressure, and regional uncertainty are increasing global risk premiums. When geopolitical risk rises, markets tend to shift into risk-off behavior, especially short term. 2. Greenland + trade tensions Recent developments tied to Greenland and trade policy have added uncertainty to global markets, impacting equities, currencies, and overall liquidity conditions. What this means for crypto: • Crypto is still trading as a risk asset, not a safe haven • Increased uncertainty = higher volatility • Liquidity becomes selective, not broad When macro stress rises: • Breakouts fail more often • Volatility spikes without direction • Patience becomes critical Today is about context over conviction. Let the market show alignment before committing risk.

Factor Likely Impact U.S.–Europe tariffs ↑ Market volatility, ↓ risk appetite Greenland standoff ↑ geopolitical risk premium Iranian economic stress ↑ energy price sensitivity IMF growth warnings ↑ macro uncertainty Traders pay attention to these because they shift the market’s risk baseline, not just short-term price targets.

Now that options expiry is behind us, the market no longer has derivatives pressure suppressing price. This is where we evaluate real strength vs fake structure. What I’ll be watching today: • Does BTC hold above reclaimed levels or fail back into range • Does ETH show continuation or rejection at resistance • Is volume expanding with price, confirming intent Post-expiry moves tend to be faster and cleaner, especially if price was compressed beforehand. If volatility expands with structure holding, that’s confirmation. If levels fail quickly, it signals weakness and caution. Let the market show its hand before committing size. (VIP BREAKDOWN IN CLASSROOM TAB)