SOP: White Paper: Statistical Expectancy and Probabilistic Outcomes of a Fixed-Risk Trading System (85% Win Rate, 0.25% Risk)

Apr 3 (edited) • ⚠️

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Read the Full Paper (with Monthly Portfolio Profit Projections) Here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1esbDjJYVPj95tIYT5C8skuasQKM6IZeRdb3wdzc6WcE/edit?usp=drivesdk

This paper presents a deterministic model of a fixed-risk trading system defined by three primary variables: an 85% win rate, a 0.25% risk per trade relative to current account equity, and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.75:1.

The purpose of this analysis is to quantify statistical expectancy, projected account growth, and drawdown behavior over a fixed sample of 40 trades. The results provide a realistic framework for understanding how a positive expectancy system performs when executed consistently, with particular emphasis on edge realization and capital preservation under compounding conditions.

Make a Copy of the Expectancy Calculator here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1slbHSoHE9KMZsIFoXJ2xbH_2UD5Sf-m2-DjafGerDa8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

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SOP: White Paper: Statistical Expectancy and Probabilistic Outcomes of a Fixed-Risk Trading System (85% Win Rate, 0.25% Risk)