23h • Daily Gems
🧩 PM Clarified: Assumptions vs Risks
Your business case says go-live is 1 March. Behind that date sits a line nobody questions: “Business SMEs will be available 2 days a week for testing.”
That’s an assumption. And if it’s wrong, your date, your budget and your credibility all move with it.
Assumption = something the plan treats as true, but nobody has confirmed yet. Your estimates, dates and costs are built on it.
Example: “Finance SMEs will be available 2 days a week for UAT.”
Risk = an uncertain event that would hurt your objectives if it happened.
Example: “Finance SMEs may be pulled into year-end close, delaying UAT by 3 weeks.”
Why this matters more than people think:
Every assumption carries a risk. When an assumption fails and nobody logged it, it lands as an issue with no paper trail. The question in the steering meeting becomes “why didn’t you see this coming?” And that question lands on the PM.
What strong PMs do differently:
- Link each assumption to what depends on it. Which estimate, which milestone, which cost line.
- Give it an owner and a “confirm by” date. An assumption with no owner never gets checked.
- Get the sponsor to agree them at baseline. Now they’re shared, not yours alone.
- Review them at every stage gate. The ones still unconfirmed close to delivery are your real risks. Move them to the risk log.
- When one breaks, point back to it. Raise the issue and the change request against the logged assumption. That’s your protection.
Whether you’re new to running projects or a few years in, this is the habit that separates “the plan slipped” from “I flagged this in March.”
🧠 Spot the difference
Which of these are assumptions and which are risks?
- “The vendor’s system will accept our data format.”
- “The vendor may release their update late, delaying integration testing.”
- “Phase 2 funding will be approved at the March board.”
👇 Drop your answer in the comments. Just numbers and letters is fine.
Example: 1A, 2R, 3A
I’ll share the answers tomorrow.
📂 Want to stop guessing which assumptions will catch you out?
Premium members get a ready-to-use Assumptions Log. Each assumption links to what depends on it, has an owner and a “confirm by” date, and shows you when to move it to your risk log. [link]
0
0 comments
🧩 PM Clarified: Assumptions vs Risks
powered by
skool.com/your-first-project-4876
Practical help to deliver your projects with confidence and grow your PM career. From first role to senior.
Suggested communities
Powered by