DAY 22 — Tariff Shock Removed: Relief Now, Uncertainty Next

Today the Supreme Court of the United States struck down the broad tariff program (the big takeaway: the executive branch can’t use that emergency authority for sweeping peacetime tariffs the way it was used).

How markets typically react (what to watch)

1) First reaction = “relief trade.”

Stocks usually pop because removing tariffs can mean lower input costs and better margins for import-heavy companies (retailers, apparel, auto supply chain, electronics).

2) Second reaction = “okay… who pays the bill?”

The bigger question is refunds: the ruling leaves uncertainty on whether the government has to pay back a massive amount of tariff revenue, and that can show up as bond/yield noise.

3) Third reaction = “tariffs may come back another way.”

Even if these tariffs are struck down, the policy fight can shift to other legal routes. That keeps headline risk alive.

Beginner TradingView checklist (simple)

On TradingView, watch these for confirmation (not vibes):

DXY / USD strength (tightening vs easing)

10Y yields / bonds (fiscal worry vs inflation relief)

Oil & gold (headline hedge vs calm)

Your risk chart (SPY/QQQ/BTC): does it break + hold, or wick and fail?

CTA: Do you think this ruling is mostly inflation relief (risk-on) or mostly policy uncertainty (chop) for the next 1–2 weeks?

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