22h • Trading Chat (general)
Weekly Macro Breakdown
Right, strap in — this is one of the biggest weeks of the entire year. We've got four central bank interest rate decisions: Japan, Australia, the US Federal Reserve, Switzerland, AND the Bank of England. When this many central banks meet in the same week, volatility is guaranteed. As always, I'll keep it beginner-friendly and explain as we go.
QUICK REFRESHER: Every event has three numbers. Previous (last time), Consensus (what's expected), Actual (what prints). The market moves on the surprise, the gap between expected and actual. And remember the two most important words: hawkish (leaning toward higher rates = currency up) and dovish (leaning toward cuts = currency down).
🔴 MONDAY, JUNE 15
ECB President Lagarde Speech (2:30 PM) EUR 🇪🇺 Lagarde runs the European Central Bank. After last week's ECB rate hike, the market will be listening for clues about what comes next. One thing to note the consensus is "LOCKED," meaning analysts aren't even putting out a forecast because it's an unscripted speech. Listen for the tone: is she still worried about inflation (hawkish) or starting to worry about the slowing economy (dovish)?
🔴 TUESDAY, JUNE 16
China Industrial Production & Retail Sales (9:00 AM) CNY 🇨🇳 Industrial Production measures factory output. Retail Sales measures how much people are spending in shops. Together they tell us how healthy China's economy is. China is the world's factory, so weakness here ripples out to commodity currencies like the Aussie dollar.
Bank of Japan Rate Decision (time TBC) JPY 🇯🇵 ⭐ Previous: 0.75% | Consensus: 1%
Japan's been the global outlier for years keeping rates near zero while everyone else hiked. Now they're expected to raise to 1%. This matters because the yen has been incredibly weak (remember it hit that 160 danger zone). A hike could finally give the yen some strength. Watch the press conference (1:30 PM) that's where Governor Ueda's tone moves the market.
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (11:30 AM) AUD 🇦🇺 ⭐ Previous: 4.35% | Consensus: 4.35% (expected to hold)
Australia's central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. But like always the decision itself is only half the story. The press conference (12:30 PM) and the wording of their statement is where the real signal is. Are they hinting at future cuts or holding firm?
When a central bank "holds," they leave rates unchanged. The market still reacts based on what they signal about the future this is called "forward guidance." It's the central bank dropping hints about what they'll do next.
🔴 WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17
UK Inflation CPI (1:00 PM) GBP 🇬🇧 ⭐
- Headline CPI YoY: Previous 2.8%
- Core CPI YoY: Previous 2.5% | Consensus 2.7%
This is huge timing. UK inflation drops the day BEFORE the Bank of England's rate decision. So whatever this number shows directly shapes what the BoE does 24 hours later. Hot inflation = pressure to keep rates high. Cooling inflation = room to cut. Watch the pound react.
US Retail Sales (7:30 PM) USD 🇺🇸 Previous: 0.5% | Consensus: 0.5%
Measures how much Americans are spending. Consumer spending drives about 70% of the US economy, so this is a key health check. Strong spending = strong economy = supports the dollar. The day before the Fed decision, so it feeds into that too.
🔴 THURSDAY, JUNE 18 — THE BIG ONE ⭐⭐⭐
US Federal Reserve Rate Decision (1:00 AM) USD 🇺🇸 Previous: 3.75% | Consensus: 3.75% (expected to hold)
This is the main event of the week. The Fed is the world's most important central bank, and the dollar is the world's reserve currency, so this moves everything.
They're expected to hold at 3.75%. But here's what really matters this time, the FOMC Economic Projections and the Interest Rate Projections.
"FOMC" = Federal Open Market Committee, the group within the Fed that votes on interest rates. The "projections" are their forecasts for where they think rates will go over the next few years. This is also called the "dot plot" each official plots where they think rates should be. The market obsesses over this because it reveals the Fed's future intentions.
Look at the rate projections: Current 3.4%, 1st year 3.1%, longer-term 3.1%. If these shift higher than expected, it means the Fed sees rates staying high for longer, dollar bullish. After last week's hot US inflation (which topped 4%), there's a real chance the Fed sounds more hawkish than the market wants.
Watch the press conference (1:30 AM) Powell-era or not, the Fed Chair's words move billions in seconds.
New Zealand GDP (5:45 AM) NZD 🇳🇿 Previous: 0.2% | Consensus: 0.9% (QoQ)
GDP = the total value of everything a country produces — the broadest measure of economic health. A big expected jump here. A beat strengthens the Kiwi dollar.
UK Jobs Data (1:00 PM) GBP 🇬🇧
- Claimant Count Change: how many more people claimed unemployment benefits
- Employment Change: how many jobs were added
- Unemployment Rate: Previous 5% | Consensus 5%
More jobs data feeding into the BoE decision happening hours later.
Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (2:30 PM) CHF 🇨🇭 Previous: 0% | Consensus: 0%
Switzerland has had ultra-low inflation, so they're expected to hold at 0%. The Swiss franc is a safe-haven currency it strengthens when there's global fear (like the Middle East tensions).
Bank of England Rate Decision (6:00 PM) GBP 🇬🇧 ⭐⭐ Previous: 3.75% | Consensus: 3.75% (expected to hold)
The UK's central bank decision. Expected to hold, but watch the MPC vote split this is the clever bit.
"MPC" = Monetary Policy Committee, the 9 people who vote on UK interest rates. The calendar shows the expected vote: 0 for a cut, 2 for a hike, 7 to hold unchanged. If more members than expected vote to cut or hike, that's a surprise that moves the pound even if the overall decision is to hold. The vote split tells you which way the committee is leaning for next time.
🔴 FRIDAY, JUNE 19
US Juneteenth Holiday (All Day) USD 🇺🇸 US markets are closed for the holiday. Expect thinner liquidity and potentially choppier moves in the US session.
"Liquidity" = how much money is actively flowing in the market. When a major market is closed, there's less liquidity, which can cause exaggerated or erratic price moves on lower volume. Take extra care trading on low-liquidity days.
UK Retail Sales (1:00 PM) GBP 🇬🇧 Previous: -1.3% | Consensus: 0.5%
How much UK consumers spent. A bounce back from -1.3% to positive would be a good sign for the UK economy and the pound.
KEY TAKEAWAYS THIS WEEK:
- This is a central bank super-week. Japan, Australia, the US Fed, Switzerland, and the Bank of England ALL decide rates. Expect serious volatility across every major currency.
- Thursday is the heavyweight day. The US Fed decision (1:00 AM) is the single most important event. Watch the dot plot and projections, not just the hold decision.
- The UK one-two punch: UK inflation Wednesday → Bank of England decision Thursday. The inflation number sets up the BoE move. Watch the MPC vote split for the real signal.
- The connecting thread: after last week's hot US inflation (over 4%) and the ECB hiking, the big question everywhere is are rate cuts off the table? If central banks signal "higher for longer," currencies strengthen and stocks could wobble.
If you only watch one thing: the US Fed decision and projections, Thursday 1:00 AM. Everything flows from what the Fed signals about the path ahead.
A genuinely massive week for learning. Five central banks in five days is rare, and it's the perfect chance to watch how rate decisions actually move markets in real time. Drop any questions below 👇
2
1 comment
Weekly Macro Breakdown
powered by
skool.com/trade-lab-6140
I have designed this Skool to give you edge in the market. I teach technical and fundamental analysis. Giving you the best chance of profitability
Suggested communities
Powered by