11h • Bitcoin
Bitcoin hit it's 200W SMA...is the bottom in?
The day I've been waiting for since the bear market started last year finally happened, BTC hit its 200W SMA.
Every past bear market has found its bottom when price touched this red line. So are we in the clear? My honest take: no.
I think we test $60K this month, and possibly drop as low as $55K. Here's how I see the range playing out between now and October:
Worst case: $40K–$50K Best case: $55K–$60K
Some analysts are calling for as low as $40K in October. That's not my base case, but my personal buying window is currently between $55K and ~$62K (the 200W SMA).
MSTE — My Tranche Strategy (Not Financial Advice)
I've been buying in tranches, and I never add to a tranche once it's hit my allocated budget, I am using new capital not distribution to buy tranches - for distributions, I keep buying MSTE until I am above my avg price per share: Each tranches $ invested amount is larger and larger, my $4 tranche has far less invested then my recent $2.75, so my avg price per share is quite low now. and REMEBER THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DO NOT, I REPEAT, DO NOT COPY ANYTHING I AM DOING! I am investing into the highest risk asset right now, the only asset losing money while everything else is booming, so DO NOT COPY TRADE THIS, this all could be a horrible investment! Now, here's what I've been up to:
$4.00 — Complete
$3.75 — Complete
$3.50 — Complete
$3.25 — Complete
$3.00 — Complete
$2.75 — Complete
$2.50 — Waiting (~75% chance)
$2.25 — Waiting (~50% chance)
$2.00 — Waiting (~30% chance)
In short, this is going to be a rough June, possibly slight recovery into Summer, then a possible crash in October. Or a massive crash this month, maybe going into July and then a slow recovery begins. In the end who knows, all I know is BTC finally hit the red line, so we are within 10-20% of the bottom in a best case scenario.
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Bitcoin hit it's 200W SMA...is the bottom in?
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