A long, clean streak can distort risk.
One bad outcome gets more weight than the many that went fine.
The base rate stays the same.
If you already possess a stack of evidence about something, or undeniable proof (as Hormozi would say), you have enough data points to outweigh the "what ifs".
Portable Life sees this all the time:
- One missed flight vs dozens that connected
- One sketchy stay vs years of solid homes
- One slow Wi-Fi day vs months of stable work
- One lost bag vs a long run of clean arrivals
Keep perspective with simple moves:
- State the base rate: out of 100, how many went fine?
- Name the expected costs: delays, fees, scrapes
- Improve the process, not the identity: add guardrails and continue
- Track outcomes: count wins and issues, not moods
- Add one safeguard: backups for power, data, routes, or stays
What past scare made YOU overestimate the risk, and what guardrail did YOU keep?