D. White 12.5 Over
Another under-the-radar pick I see as having high value. White is in a serious shooting slump—6/27 from the field in his last three games, including 2/22 from deep—which is quite unusual. I think he has the perfect opportunity tonight to get back on track against a Toronto squad that plays at the league’s fastest pace and allows the most points over its last 15 games.
They’re especially poor at defending spot-up (7th-worst), transition (7th-worst), handoffs, free throws (2nd and 1st-worst), and off-screen actions (9th-worst)—exactly where White racks up most of his points. The Raptors love to send help on the opposing team’s top scorer (recently held Giannis to 11 points and forced him into 13 assists, but lost by 20+ because the role players went off). I expect a similar approach on Tatum, which should free up White.
Excluding his last three games, White has gone over 12.5 in 5 of his last 7 whenever Porzingis, Tatum, and Brown are all available. In two meetings with Toronto this season, he scored 18 and 16. Similar players have succeeded against the Raptors: Hardaway Jr. (27), Beasley (18), LeVert (18), Strus (12), OG (27), Trent (17), Pope (15), Da Silva (25), Cam (24), Keon (16)… Hoping White takes advantage of this ideal matchup. Good luck.