Mar 18 • 🔴Recordings
FOMC today - What's going to happen?
If you look at this 15-minute chart, what stands out immediately is the amount of consolidation we’re seeing around this 5000 area.
Price isn’t trending cleanly. It’s moving back and forth, building a range, with repeated pushes above and below the same zone.
Now on the surface, people will say this is “the market waiting for FOMC.” And that’s partly true.
But the deeper question is this:
Is price waiting for FOMC…or is the market using FOMC as the timing mechanism to release a move that’s already being prepared?
From a liquidity perspective, this kind of consolidation is exactly what you would expect before a major event. Because during times like this, institutions are not chasing price. They are building positions.
And to do that, they need liquidity.
That’s why you see this type of behaviour:
Price pushes down, finds buyers. Price pushes up, finds sellers. Then rotates back into the middle again
Over and over. This tells you both sides are active, but neither side is in full control yet.
The market is being held in this area while orders are being filled.
That 5000 level is still acting like a magnet.
Price breaks below it, comes back above it, rejects, then returns again.
That’s classic liquidity behaviour.
Below the level, you’ve got stop losses from buyers and breakout sellers.
Above the level, you’ve got trapped sellers and short-term profit taking.
So price keeps moving between those areas, filling orders.
This is not indecision. This is preparation.
Is FOMC Moving Price?
Most retail traders think FOMC is what moves the market, but institutions usually already have a bias before the event.
They’ve already been positioning. They’ve already been building exposure.
FOMC doesn’t create the move, it releases it.
The market spends time building liquidity, trapping traders, and preparing. Then FOMC provides the volume and volatility needed to move.
So it’s less about FOMC causing the move, and more about it providing cover for what was already building.
Looking at the structure, we’ve had repeated pushes below 5000, which tells us downside liquidity is being taken. But there’s no strong continuation lower yet.
That means sellers are present, but not fully in control.
At the same time, the upside isn’t aggressive either.
So what we’re seeing is compression, and compression usually leads to expansion.
The longer this builds, the bigger the move tends to be when it finally breaks.
There's also a real possibility that… nothing happens.
Or at least, nothing meaningful.
Sometimes the market builds all this tension, everyone expects a big move, and FOMC comes out… and price just continues ranging.
Why? Because the positioning has already been balanced.
Buyers and sellers have already done enough business in this area that there’s no strong imbalance left to drive price.
So instead of a breakout, you just get more rotation.
That’s important to understand. Not every buildup leads to expansion. Sometimes the outcome is simply continuation of the range.
What I’ll Be Watching Into FOMC
The focus isn’t prediction, it’s behaviour.
If price breaks below and holds below, with weak pullbacks and continued pressure, that suggests sellers have taken control.
If price dips below and quickly snaps back above 5000, that’s a liquidity sweep and reclaim, which often leads higher.
And the same applies on the upside.
The key is whether price can hold beyond the move, not just spike.
Bottom Line
This area around 5000 is a liquidity zone, not a direction.
The market is building pressure here, but that doesn’t guarantee a breakout.
FOMC will likely bring volatility, but the move will come from the positioning already happening now.
And sometimes, the most important thing to recognise is when the market isn’t ready to move at all.
So stay focused on behaviour, not expectation, because whether it breaks or continues ranging, the chart will tell you first.
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FOMC today - What's going to happen?
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