Feb '25 (edited) • General discussion
TRUMP, the SPY, BTC and Alts
All,
The Trump presidency has not stopped handing wins on the daily. It has been wild and none of us have seen anything like it in our lifetime. With that said though, he is moving so fast that it is creating all sorts of uncertainty in the markets, and the markets hate uncertainty.
We can see it in the charts, and I expect more volatility to continue through this first year. This is forcing me to take a big step back and zoom out, and let the charts speak what they speak.
Let's start with the SPY (image 1)
The SPY consists of the top 500 companies in the United States, so betting on it is betting on the U.S.
The SPY has been bouncing around this zone, and with DOGE being sniffing out corruption everywhere I suspect we will see a great reshuffle of what companies people want to be involved with. I imagine we'll see many lose phony subscription services (like Disney).
Lonterm, betting on the SPY with the force of nature that the Trump administration is is probably the safest bet anyone in the world can make. But even that doesn't mean it won't have a downside move in the near term. REMEMBER: the trend is your friend until it isn't. This thing sideways in the range until it doesnt.
Onto BTC
Bitcoin is still in the range it has been for 2 months now (image 2).
There has been nothing but an onslaught of good news for BTC in the last 3 weeks.
- Trump launching his meme coin signaling a crypto-friendly environment
- Trump Admin openly telling the market they will work expediently for crypto-friendly legislation
- Trump announcing a Sovereign Wealth Fund
- 22 states working on legislation to create their own BTC reserves (image 3)
The list goes on, but all that good news has not changed the price. So we must zoom out. All that news is amazing and very bullish in the long term, but when you zoom out you still see that BTC is in the range, AND there are two bearish signals to be aware of. REMEMBER: each signal is only one indicator and we want the market to tell us what direction it wants to take via multiple indicators saying the same thing creating confluence.
There are three bearish signals I am seeing in the market to be aware of
- On the weekly (image 4) and the Monthly (image 5) there is a bearish hammer candle on the BTC chart
- The Alt Coins are getting absolutely obliterated on the charts. We often see random altcoins start popping off before BTC makes a big run. This can be a leading indicator for the market as a whole. They could be forecasting what BTC will do next. In this, they could all be forecasting a drop.
- I see so many people posting hopium that I think the max pain situation is that it drops down to our Fib retracement zone.
With all that though, ultimately I am letting price be the guide. BTC is in the range until it isn't. And speaking of Altcoin let's jump into a few.
Altcoins.
They experienced a MASSIVE drop across all sectors since the election. When I say massive I mean it was worse than Covid 19 news. I have never seen anything like it since I have been in crypto. The big ones I have been in with high conviction (like SUPER) have dropped 50% to 75% from their highs. Could they go further? Of course. IF BTC drops further I don't see a world where these don't follow and drop to their prior bottoms for a full retrace which would be incredibly painful for alt holders.
With that said, there are signs that the bottom for these is in (BTC remaining where it is). The first is many have formed a bullish hammer candle at the new lows, (image 6) and the second is that it has already bled so much that it is already irrationally oversold. This offers a great opportunity to buy in at lows if you have not bought any yet.
Personally, I am out of my short-term positions and waiting for them to tell me where they want to go next. I am not trying to nail the bottom, but waiting for these trend lines to break north. See images 6, 7, 8
So my game plan is to
- Start looking for new trade set ups around Trump's agenda and narrative. The dude is such a force that he has captured the world's attention, and that can help us find what we should be looking for
- Search for what is holding up best in crypto the last 3 weeks and see if we can find a play with conviction
- Be patient and wait for the market to tell me what's next, and where it wants to go, and not try and force a narrative. Our goal is to be profitable, not buy the very bottom or sell the very top.
If you have any questions or find anything you want me to look into please don't hesitate to ask.
Stay safe out there and God Bless,
Charlton
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TRUMP, the SPY, BTC and Alts
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