2d • General discussion
EagleTrade Weekly Outlook — Week of March 2–6, 2026
Welcome back, EagleTrade family.
We're stepping into March with a market that's talking loud and testing everybody's conviction. The noise is real. The opportunity is also real. Let's break it down so you walk into this week with clarity, not confusion.
THE BIG PICTURE
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. The market is under pressure right now.
The S&P 500 dropped to around 6,810 today, losing 1% from Friday's close, and over the past month it's down 1.55%. We're sitting below that critical 6,900 pivot the market has been wrestling with all February.
Here's what's creating the turbulence: military strikes over the weekend effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, adding serious geopolitical pressure on top of an already fragile backdrop for equities. On top of that, we got a hotter than expected wholesale inflation print last week, and the Nasdaq 100 remains below its 100-day moving average, which has become near-term resistance. The index tried to break above it twice this month and got rejected both times.
The financial buffet is still open. But right now, some dishes aren't ready. Know which ones to skip.
WHAT'S ON THE CALENDAR
This week is loaded. Here's what matters.
ADP Employment Report (Wednesday) — Private sector jobs data. First look at the labor market for February. This sets the tone heading into Friday.
Jobless Claims (Thursday) — A pulse check on layoffs. Initial claims have remained subdued, which is one of the bright spots in the data right now. Watch for any surprises.
Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday, March 6) — The big one. Economists are looking for about 60,000 jobs added in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. This number will either calm the market or pour gasoline on it. The market needs it to walk a fine line — not too hot to hurt the rate outlook, not too cold to add to fears of a deteriorating labor market.
Key Earnings This Week — Broadcom (AVGO) reports Thursday. Following strong results from Nvidia last week, Wall Street is looking for Broadcom to report around $19.1 billion in revenue. Also watch CrowdStrike (CRWD), Costco (COST), and Marvell Technology (MRVL).
Position yourself BEFORE these events, not during them. Never chase.
THIS WEEK'S GAME PLAN
1. Cash Is A Position
With geopolitical shock, hot inflation, and a jobs report coming Friday, cash is not laziness. Cash is discipline. If your thesis isn't crystal clear this week, you sit. The plays with your name on them will still be there next week.
2. Watch The Reaction, Not The Report
The jobs number on Friday will move markets. But here's what most people miss — it's not the number that matters, it's how the market reacts to the number. A "bad" number can trigger a rally. A "good" number can sell off. Wait for the dust to settle before entering new positions around that event.
3. Tech Is Showing You Where The Money Is Going
The Nasdaq has been rejected at its 100-day moving average twice this month. That tells you something. Money is rotating. The gold and insurance sectors are showing relative strength while tech consolidates. Follow the rotation, not the noise.
ACTIVE PLAYS
✅ VIAV — Viavi Solutions | $29 Call | 5/15 Expiration Action: CONSIDER TRIMMING AT TARGET 1 Average cost: $3.90 | Current contract price: $5.50 | Total return: +41% VIAV stock is up 10% today, trading at $32.68. We are knocking on the door of that 50% first profit target. The three-tier system says we start trimming here. Selling a portion locks in real gains while letting the rest ride. If you haven't hit 50% yet by the time you read this, watch the price closely today. Do not let a winner turn into a regret. Stop loss on remaining position: 35%
✅ AU — AngloGold Ashanti | $120 Call | 4/17 Expiration Action: MANAGING — WATCH EXPIRATION Average cost: $10.40 | Current contract price: $13.85 | Total return: +33% AU stock is at $128.02 with a breakeven of $130.40. The position is up over 33% and the contract is deep in the money. The concern here is the clock. April 17 is 46 days away — you are approaching the 30-day danger zone faster than you think. Start planning your exit. Do not let time decay eat what the market gave you. Stop loss: 35%
📊 EQX — Equinox Gold | $17.5 Call | 4/17 Expiration Action: WATCHING Current contract price: $2.30 | EQX stock: $18.61 The stock is above the strike, which means this contract is in the money. Today it's pulling back 6% on the contract despite the stock being above $17.50. Gold is having a volatile day across the board given the geopolitical situation. The thesis is intact but this one needs a close eye. Same expiration as AU — April 17 is coming. Have your exit plan ready. Stop loss: 35%
⚠️ RNR — RenaissanceRe | $350 Call | 4/17 Expiration Action: REVIEW YOUR STOP LOSS Average cost: $1.90 | Current contract price: $1.18 | Total return: -37.89% RNR stock is at $305.73. Your strike is $350 and breakeven is $351.90. The stock has a $44 gap to even reach your strike, and you are already past the 35% stop loss threshold at -37.89%. The rule is the rule. Hope is not a strategy. If you haven't already, this is the position that requires a hard conversation with yourself today.
RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDER
Two our three positions expire April 17. That is 46 days away. You are not in the 30-day window yet, but you will be before you know it. Mark March 18 on your calendar as your decision deadline for AU and EQX. By that date, you either exit, roll, or have a clear reason to stay.
VIAV gives you more runway with the May 15 expiration, but don't get comfortable. Take your first profit tier, protect your gains, and let the formula work.
The most you can lose is what you put up. Honor that by honoring your stops.
FINAL WORD
This is exactly what the formula is built for. One position screaming, one position making you think, one position testing your discipline, and one position reminding you why stop losses exist. This is not chaos. This is trading.
Data and emotion have to align before you make a move. Check both before you act on anything today.
Trade wisely. Stay sharp.
— Aziz | EagleTrade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is educational content for EagleTrade community members. All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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EagleTrade Weekly Outlook — Week of March 2–6, 2026
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