Hard 15: Similarly, if you stand on a 15 against a dealer's 10, your chances of winning hover around 25%. By hitting, you improve your win rate to 29% and can push sometimes, meaning hitting makes you about 11% better off on that specific action.
Hard 16: Against a dealer's strong upcard (7 through Ace), hitting 16 busts about 69% of the time, meaning you lose. However, standing on 16 in these scenarios yields a ~74%+ long-term loss. By refusing to hit, you are essentially giving away roughly 2% to 4% of your expected return on that specific hand.