24d • 💬 General Discussion
The ISM Theory That's Flipping Crypto's 4-Year Cycle
"This time is different."
The four most dangerous words in investing.
But what if it actually is different this time?
And what if that's bullish?
Here's the theory that's turning heads:
The crypto market doesn't follow the Bitcoin halving anymore.
It follows the business cycle.
Specifically, the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Index (ISM).
When the ISM peaks, Bitcoin hits its cycle top.
When the ISM bottoms, Bitcoin hits its cycle low.
This pattern held perfectly for years.
Until now.
For the first time ever, crypto's 4-year cycle reached its peak, but the ISM didn't follow.
It stayed below 50 for seven months straight, signaling economic weakness.
According to Raul Pal, this explains why crypto has felt so underwhelming lately.
But here's what matters:
The ISM is projected to rise into late 2026.
Translation: The crypto bull market could extend into next year.
Why? The debt refinancing cycle.
During the pandemic, average debt maturity increased from 4 years to 5.4 years.
This extended the liquidity cycle, which extended the crypto cycle.
If this theory is correct, we're not late to the party.
We're still early.
The question is whether you'll have the patience to wait for it.
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The ISM Theory That's Flipping Crypto's 4-Year Cycle
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