As of now, deciding to leave my risk off the table. Prices in no mans land and waiting for next move by Orange man. If he doesn't speak before Monday, I presume stocks continue to roll. VIX ended Friday on highs and could thrust up yet again. I expect him to say something positive though, he of course hates seeing number go down. The one thing this does do is lock in rate cuts as interest rates drop further and no data coming from gov shutdown increases uncertainty. Stocks have needed to take a break. But it could get much worse. Let's see how the admin plays this. I have notifications on for his truth social account. Who knows. Stay safe.

I’ll be here for a few days…

With the FOMC decision (a 25bps rate cut) coming tomorrow, I thought I would give my two cents. Things looks optimistic. I think a lot of the uncertainty has been priced out of the market, the money sees the playbook and is allocating accordingly. For now I see all dips across the board as buying opportunities in risk assets… including BTC. I am open to the idea of it diverging and flushing everyone out, crypto does as crypto does. But mid term I love the setup. Stocks are all ath’s or close to it like with the Russell. Gold is ripping in blue skies, rate aren’t threatening to blowout as much, and volatility/spreads have compressed. As for mortgage rates, im starting to buy into the fact that this admin wont let them go higher… and that it’s an absolute prerogative for them to get them lower. I am not sure how, however they are considering a “housing” emergency, which could very well happen. If they do this and effectively talk long end rates lower, while short end falls and stocks and gold rally.. the currency likely takes the brunt of it and we see the dollar go lower. This is just my best guess. So if stocks take a breather soon, I assume it’s just the last -5/10% move before an epic 4th quarter run into year end and into 2026. Let’s see!

Good morning! It’s September, it’s time to lock in for a couple months before everyone gets the holiday spirit. What are you working on? How can we help? Are you positioned in markets and in life the way you want?