Hey! As we start 2026, I want to share a few very personal market views and investment ideas I'm going to actively explore this year. This is not a recommendation and not a directional forecast. It's simply how I currently see market structure, volatility, and opportunity from the perspective of an active options seller and short-volatility hedge fund advisor. 1) Metals: the parabolic move may be behind, but volatility lingers Gold and silver already had their most emotional, parabolic phase. The important nuance is that implied volatility rarely normalizes as fast as price action does, and that lag is where options sellers get paid. So, I'll be very active in GLD, SLV, PALL, and URA, both in my personal portfolio and in our hedge fund. The specific edge I'm watching is post-spike IV that stays sticky after the trend fades, especially when the surface flips into volatility backwardation. That's a perfect setup for short-dated and 0-DTE premium harvesting. 2) Crypto: stagnation is the edge My base case for crypto is not another explosive trend, but prolonged consolidation. That's exactly why IBIT, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF with liquid options, is so interesting. Implied volatility remains structurally rich, often well above realized volatility. I don't trade crypto directionally, but I sell premium strategically. Compared to the industry's obsession with upside narratives, this approach is far less exciting, but it creates a much more consistent income engine. 3) Rate cuts shift income opportunities If rate cuts continue, my famous "yield engineering" trades like SPX box spreads and risk-free butterflies become less attractive. At the same time, they open a different door. Lower rates support REITs (Realty Income - O - remains my personal favorite), utilities (XLU), healthcare (XLV, UNH), and dividend growth ETFs (SCHD). I consistently combine these with aggressive call writing, creating my Triple Income Strategy. This approach targets an additional 11-18% per annum, with extremely low volatility and zero vega risk!

CRM reports after the bell, and the setup is actually fascinating. The stock sits around $235, down 36% from highs and 30% YTD. Growth has slowed, but fundamentals aren't broken. They're just… less sexy. IV is pricing a 7-8% move, skew is modest, and this is exactly the type of environment where I want to be slightly long CRM and short rich downside vol, with a wide cushion if we get a controlled pullback. Let's see what Marc Benioff brings us tonight!

In 2024, I achieved 77% returns with a very conservative options portfolio, focusing on strategic setups and managing risk through asymmetric opportunities. No speculation, just disciplined and calculated trades. In my latest video, I break down: - My annual performance and how it compared to the market - The trades that worked (and the ones that didn't!) - Key lessons from navigating a volatile year You can watch the full breakdown and see how a strategic, conservative approach can deliver results: https://youtu.be/RJChiEsGClA?si=vaH2CRwZvCkHy1pS What's your biggest trading goal this year?

Hey, in the previous posts, I shared that rotation charts are finally giving us clean signals: XLV (Healthcare) keeps gaining relative strength, while XLE (Energy) is recovering after weeks of underperformance. Both sectors moved into a decision zone, and today I'm showing the exact structure I'm using to trade that divergence in the hedge fund. Part 1: XLE Call Debit Spread (Defined-Risk Snapback Play) - Buy 88C / Sell 91C Jan 16 (51 DTE), Debit: $1.59, Max Profit: $141 - A clean, defined-risk way to play the standard Energy bounce inside a choppy, low-volatility range. If XLE mean-reverts toward 90–92, this structure pays quickly Part 2: XLV Call Ratio Spread (Harvesting Exhaustion) - Buy 160C / Sell 2× 163C Jan 16 (51 DTE), Max Profit: $357, Max Risk is undefined (but extremely manageable in XLV). - XLV is extended, overbought, and showing early fatigue. Elevated IV makes upper-strike calls expensive, perfect for a ratio spread that benefits from slowing momentum or shallow consolidation. Why it works as a pairs trade? These aren't two isolated ideas, they're one combined expression: - XLE - defined-risk long delta where bounce probability is high - XLV - premium capture where trend exhaustion is visible - Combined - smooth Greeks, positive theta, and exposure to sector divergence rather than index direction. This is how you express rotation and sector behavior without guessing the market's next move. A clean, elegant pairs structure built for this macro regime.

Hey, NVDA reports today after the close, and this is one of those earnings where the reaction can tell you more about the entire AI cycle than the numbers themselves. IV Rank is high (37), implied move is around 6-7%. Historically, NVDA often moves less than implied, and post-earnings IV drops fast. Everyone tonight is obsessed with one thing: "How are you trading NVDA earnings?" My honest answer: most people shouldn't. It's a crowded, binary event with sky-high expectations already priced in. Yes, IV is juicy, but one wrong line in the guidance and you're fighting a 10-15% gap in a single name. I'd rather attack the same theme, AI and semiconductors, in a calmer, higher-probability way: through SMH, the semiconductor ETF. So why SMH gives more edge than straight NVDA? SMH still benefits from the whole AI chip story, but: - You're diversified across the basket, not hostage to one conference call. - Earnings noise in any single name is diluted. - IV is elevated, but moves are usually much more reasonable than NVDA's all or nothing gaps. That's exactly the environment where short premium, and high probability of profit shines. So, my main play today is not NVDA itself, but a Jade Lizard in SMH: